By Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Friday 27 January 2012,08:30 EST
Gold “Has Foundation to Build Next Move Higher” Following FOMC “Catalyst”, Slow Physical Demand “Explains Gold’s Resistance at $1730″
WHOLESALE MARKETgold prices were headed for their biggest one-weekrise since the start of December Friday lunchtime in London, climbing back through $1720 an ounce – a weekly gain of over 3%.
Silver prices meantime hovered around $33.60 per ounce – 4.2% up on last week’s close – while other stocks and commodities were broadly flat and US Treasury bond prices slipped.
A day earlier, gold prices hit a 7-week high at $1730 per ounce before easing in Friday’s Asian session.
“Lack of physical demand partly explains the inability of gold to make a sustained move beyond the $1730 level,” says Standard bank commodities strategist Marc Ground, citing this week’s Chinese Lunar New Year holiday as impacting demand from China, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.
“[But] while slowing physical demand might provide some resistance during price rallies, we do not feel that it would be the cause of prices moving significantly lower.”
“The [physical] market has been like a yo-yo,” one Singapore dealer tells newswire Reuters.
“I think it’s a good time to buy gold…but clients are all cautious. They are doing enough to roll their money but keeping it all for the possibility of buying back.”
“Maybe it’s better to wait until Monday,” reckons another Singapore dealer.
“The Chinese market reopens and [we will] see whether they will buy some more gold or they will take profits.”
Based on PM London Fix prices, gold by Friday lunchtime looked set for its biggest weekly gain since the week ended December 2 last year.
That week saw gold’s biggest single-day Fix-to-Fix gain of recent months, whengold prices rose 2.5% on 30 November last year. Between that day’s AM and PM Fix, six of the world’s central banks announced a co-ordinated move lower the cost of Dollar funding for to the banking system.
This week meantime saw the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee begin publishing members’ interest rate projections on Wednesday. The majority of FOMC members expect rates to remain at or below 1% until at least the end of 2014.
“The market attitude towards gold for most of January could be summed up in two words: cautious optimism,” says the latest precious metals note from UBS.
“Investors were reluctant to add to positions aggressively as memories of the disappointment in Q4 lingered…A fresh catalyst was needed and we think the FOMC outcome on Wednesday fit the bill.
More accommodative policy is a very good foundation for gold to build on the next move higher.”
Between Wednesday’s London PM Fix and Thursday’s AM Fix – during which time the Fed made its announcement – gold prices gained 3.8%. Notwithstanding the New Year break, this was the biggest Fix-to-Fix gain since September 27.
That rise in gold prices coincided with reports that European policymakers were preparing a move to recapitalize the continent’s banks – though the reported proposals were not adopted.
European leaders meantime are “just about to close a deal on private sector involvement between the Greek government and the private-sector community,” European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs Olli Rehn said Friday, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
A Greek deal would pave the way for Greece’s second bailout, agreed last October and worth €130 billion – without which Greece will not be able to repay €14.5 billion of maturing debt on March 20.
Iran – which was earlier this week hit by fresh sanctions on oil, diamond andgold dealing – has said that it may immediately halt its oil exports to Europe to pre-empt a European Union ban due to come into force July 1. Greece is thought to import around one third of its oil from Iran.
Two weeks after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded them to junk status, yields on 10-Yeat Portuguese government bonds hit their highest levels since the crisis began Friday morning when they traded at 15.4% – almost double the yield on equivalent Irish debt.
Portugal’s 5-Year bond yields breached 20%.
“It makes it impossible for Portugal to access debt markets in 2013,” says JPMorgan rate strategist NikolaosPanigirtzoglou.
“It’s a country that still relies on the official sector in terms of financing its current account deficit and repayments and this makes it certain that we’re going to get a second bailout for Portugal later this year.”
“The market is asking whether Portugal is really just like Greece,” adds Richard Batty, strategy director at Standard Life Investments.
A survey published this morning by British free newspaper Metro finds that 68% of British people believe the Euro will collapse.
French bank SocieteGenerale’s latest Hedge Fund Watch also finds that hedge funds are shorting the single currency “like never before”, the Financial Times Alphaville blog reports.
The Euro however rallied against the Dollar Friday morning, breaking back through $1.31.
Euro gold prices were flat Friday morning, holding above €42150 per kilo (€1310 per ounce) – still a 1.7% gain for the week.
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 23 January 2012,08:30 EST
Gold TouchesSix-Week High asTechnicals”Turning More Bullish”, Banking Sector Negotiators “Hopeful” for Agreement on Greek Debt
THE U.S. DOLLARcost to buy gold hit a six-week high of $1677 an ounce Monday morning in London, as stock markets, commodities and the Euro all pushed higher and US Treasury bond prices dipped.
“Near term technical have turned more bullish [for gold],” says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta, though it sees “psychological resistance looming at $1700.”
The price of buying gold in Euros however fell to €41375 (€1287 per ounce) – down slightly on Friday’s close – as European finance ministers met to discuss Greek debt and a proposal to relax banking rules.
The difference between long contracts to buy gold and short contracts held by noncommercial gold futures and options traders on New York’s Comex exchange – the so-called speculative net long – rose for the second week running in the week ended last Tuesday, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
There was no change last week however in the volume of gold held to back shares in the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF.
Silver meantime hit $32.82 per ounce Monday morning – 1.8% above Friday’s close.
“Growing investor confidence is evident in [silver] ETF positioning,” reports Standard Bank commodities strategist Marc Ground this morning, citing ETFpurchases of 341.8 tonnes in the past week.
One London broker reported Friday that the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (ticker: PSLV) bought around 311 tonnes of silver last week.
Shares in New York-listed PSLV meantime gapped lower at the start of Wednesday morning’s trade, opening 9.4% down on the previous day’s close – a result of “the instantaneous premium evaporation in PSLV,” says Gene Arensberg of GotGoldReport, which had previously warned its readers that the shares’ premium to PSLV’s net asset value could disappear “at the drop of a hat.”
“Ouch for the faithful PSLV buyers,” says Arensberg, “and shame upon the managers of PSLV for allowing the premium to get so out of whack to the upside.”
Eurozone finance ministers meantime met in Brussels on Monday, where they were expected to discuss the terms of Greek debt restructuring, with negotiations in Athens over recent days having failed to produce a deal.
“I remain quite hopeful [of reaching agreement],” Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance – which is negotiating on behalf of banks that hold Greek debt – said Sunday.
The IIF made an offer on Friday to accept voluntary private sector involvement that would amount to losses on Greek bonds of around 65-70%, according to press reports. Dallara described it as “the maximum offer consistent with a voluntary PSI deal”.
A sticking point is the size of the coupon on new bonds that will be swapped for existing ones. Both sides were thought to be close to agreeing an annual rate of between 4% and 4.5%, newswire Bloomberg reported.
Germany and the International Monetary Fund, however, want to see this cut to 3%, according to the New York Times, citing officials involved in the talks.
“I believe that the private sector can accept a lower coupon than the 4% average, but the question then is: will the PSI still be on a voluntary basis?” one senior Greek banker told newswire Reuters.
Any deal that is not voluntary risks triggering payments on credit default swaps – which payout in the event of default. Failure to agree debt restructuring meanwhile also risks jeopardizing Greece’s second bailout – without which it will be unable to pay €14.5 billion of maturing bonds on March 20.
Also at today’s Brussels meeting, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, along with his French opposite number Francois Baroin, will call for relaxation of banking rules, according to the Financial Times.
The pair will ask for elements of Basel III – the regulations on how much capital banks must hold, due to come into force in 2015 – to be loosened for banks that own insurance companies, such as French banks SocieteGenerale and Credit Agricole. They also propose a three-year delay for the deadline on disclosing leverage ratios – in contrast to UK regulators, who have called for disclosure ahead of schedule.
Baroin meantime has confirmed that France’s proposed financial transaction tax – one of the issues that led to British prime minister David Cameron walking out of European Union talks in December – will not apply to government bonds.
The US Federal Reserve meantime could make the historic move of announcing a specific inflation target when it gives its interest rate decision on Wednesday, Reuters reports.
Also in the US, Newt Gingrich – who last week said the United States should consider returning to the gold standard – won South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary on Saturday. One of his opponents, Mitt Romney, has subsequently bowed to calls to release his tax returns.
China has seen a “New Year’s rush” to buy gold to mark the Year of the Dragon, which begins today, the FT reports.
“Some customers just walk in and buy a bunch of 100g gold bars all at once,” it quotes one manager at Chines bank ICBC.
“People like to give them away…companies come in too to buy gold bars for presents.”
ICBC – the world’s largest bank by stock market cap – announced last week that 2.33 million Chinese citizens use its gold accumulation program, which currently holds 22 tonnes of gold.
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Friday 20 January 2012,08:20 EST
Gold for the WeekDown in Euros, Up in Dollars as “Currency Dictates” Gold amid “Significantly Reduced” Physical Market Activity
WHOLESALE MARKETgold bullion prices in Dollars dropped to $1646 an ounce Friday lunchtime in London – down 1.4% onyesterday’s high – as China prepared for theweek-long Lunar New Year holiday.
Commodities also traded lower, while stock markets were broadly flat overall.
Prices for silver bullion dropped to $30.39 per ounce – though still 2.0% up on last week’s close.
“As we approach the holiday, the usual Asian physical activity has decreased significantly,” says one gold bullion dealer in Hong Kong.
“We expect this pattern to continue next week,” adds a dealer here in London, noting that with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed, a large part of the global physical gold bullion market will be effectively absent.
“With physical demand providing little support, the Dollar continues to largely dictate movements in gold,” says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.
Heading into the weekend, gold was up slightly on the week in Dollars Friday lunchtime, but down 1.4% in Euros.
Italy’s banks were the biggest borrowers at last month’s 3-Year longer term refinancing operation by the European Central Bank, the Financial Times reports. Italian banks borrowed around €50 billion of the €489 billion lent by the ECB, in a liquidity operation that attracted over 500 European banks.
“The market has underestimated how meaningful the scheme could be to avert a credit crunch,” reckons Morgan Stanley’s Huw van Steenis, who compiled the LTRO data.
ECB president Mario Draghi said last week that as a result of the operation, there has been a reopening of some credit markets “which had completely shut down”.
The amount of borrowing at the next LTRO, scheduled for the end of next month, is expected to be lower, Draghi said yesterday.
“This is about buying time,” reckons John Davies, London-based fixed-income strategist at German bank WestLB.
“It’s only when the market believes Italy and Spain have returned to sustainable debt levels that you can say the crisis has truly ended.”
Yields on Italian 12-month Treasury Bills have fallen from 4.5% to just over 3.5% since last month’s LTRO, while 10-Year bond yields are also down, though more slightly – dropping from 6.7% to just under 6.3% this morning.
Yields on 30-Year debt however have edged higher – rising from 6.7% to 6.9% since the day of the LTRO.
“For the time being, the ECB’s operations are working at the short end [of the yield curve],” says Werner Fey, fund manager at Frankfurt Trust Investment, which oversees around €6.5 billion worth of assets.
“But for the long end, we have a lot of uncertainties around…the government problems for the Euro sovereigns are unresolved.”
The latest draft of the fiscal treaty agreed at last month’s European Union summit contains reference to an “automatically” triggered “correction mechanism” for cases where national budget deficits deviate from target, newswire Bloomberg reported Friday.
Over in India, the government has amended the changes to gold import duties announced Tuesday. Refined gold will still be taxed at 2% of its value, but unrefined gold will only be subject to a 1% levy.
As well as raising revenue, the Indian government hopes to “discourage imports so that the Rupee steadies against the Dollar,” according to one senior government official quoted by newspaper India Today.
“Encouragingly, we are seeing some Indian [gold] buying coming through,” noted Standard Bank’s Ground Friday morning, “although this could easily evaporate if the Rupee weakens, given the current price sensitivity of the country’s buyers.”
Turkey meantime has offered “one illustration of the increasing use of gold as a financial tool,” says the latest precious metals note from French investment bank Natixis.
“It emerged this week that the decision by the Turkish central bank to allow the use of gold within banks’ reserve requirements led to an increase in local banks’ gold holdings of 63 tonnes (during October and November) to 179 tonnes,” Natixis says.
“Around the world, banks have expanded their use of the gold market as a means of securing access to US Dollar financing.”
Preliminary manufacturing data for China – the world’s second-largest source of private gold bullion demand after India – suggests the sector continued to contract in December. HSBC’s purchasing managers index rose slightly to 48.8 – with a reading of more than 50 required to imply sector expansion.
Here in the UK, China’s sovereign wealth fund has bought a 9% stake in Thames Water, the firm that supplies drinking water to London and much of southern England.
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 9 January 2012,08:40 EST
Gold “StillAboveBullish Three Year Level” as “Basket Case” Europe Means Germany Now Getting Paid to Borrow Money
U.S.DOLLAR gold bullion prices touched $1623 an ounce Monday morning London time – a 1% rally from the low hit during Asian trading – before falling back slightly, while stocks, industrial commodities and major government bond prices all ticked lower.
“[Gold bullion] remains above its 3-year bullish support that now lies at $1544,” says technical analyst Russell Browne at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.
Prices for silver bullion rose to $29.26 per ounce – 1.9% down on last week’s high – while the Euro rallied against the Dollar in early European trading but couldn’t sustain momentum.
“The strength of the Dollar is playing a role in limiting appetite [for commodities],” says Nick Trevethan, Singapore-based senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.
“But Europe is still a basket case and investors are hoping to see more easing out of the European Central Bank at some point.”
Germany successfully auctioned €3.9 billion of 6-month government bills – known as Bubills – Monday morning. However, the bid-to-cover ratio was down on the previous auction last month, falling from 3.8 to 1.8.
In addition, some of the bills were sold at negative nominal interest rates – with the average yield coming in at minus 0.0122%.
Monday’s was the first auction at which bidders could bid in terms of price rather than yield.
“Through the submission of price bids with prices above 100 it is possible to submit price bids reflecting negative yields,” said a Bundesbank statement issued before the auction.
In other words, some investors were this morning prepared to pay more than €100 today in order to receive €100 in June.
Elsewhere in Berlin, German chancellor Angela Merkel is set to have talks with French president Nicolas Sarkozy today on how to implement tighter budgetary rules agreed at the December 9 summit.
“It’s important we do start to see some progress,” says Goldman Sachs chief European economist Huw Pill, adding that the Eurozone crisis will not be fixed without “German largesse”.
Banks meantime will need to take “substantial haircuts” on their holdings of Greek debt, reckons International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard. Representatives for the banking sector agreed to take losses of 50% as part of an agreement reached last October, but their losses “may have to be larger” Blanchard said Friday.
By contrast, the governor of Cyprus’s central bank, AthanasiosOrphanides – who is also a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council – has called on Eurozone leaders to abandon plans to impose private sector losses.
“It is a thoroughly inefficient way of dealing with the moral hazard issue that we are still paying for now,” he wrote in Friday’s Financial Times, arguing that reversing the decision would reduce financing costs for other Eurozone countries, even though it would raise them for Greece.
Officials from the European Union and IMF are due to visit Greece on Saturday. Before then, the ECB will hold its first interest rate meeting of 2012 on Thursday, while Italy and Spain hold bond auctions on Thursday and Friday.
China’s money supply grew by 13.6% in the year to December – more than the consensus analysts’ forecast of 12.9% – following the central bank’s decision at the end of November to cut the amount of cash banks are required to hold relative to their assets, known as the reserve requirement ratio.
A note from economists at JPMorgan this morning says it expects the PBOC to announce three cuts in the reserve requirement ratio in the first six months of this year.
This prediction follows an interview given by PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan to news agency Xinhua, in which he said the PBOC needs “to be prepared for a poor external environment”.
Gold volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange – which hit record highs last Wednesday – remained strong on Monday, traders report.
Chinese Lunar New Year falls on 23 January this year – the earliest since 2004, when it fell on January 2002. China’s banks were last week “on the bid” to buy gold head of Lunar New Year, one trader noted last week.
In addition, last month China’s authorities banned all gold exchanges with the exceptions of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Gold bullion, however, “is not cheap in local currencies in Asia,” says one Singapore-based dealer, adding that his firm only saw “light buying” on Monday, although premiums over Spot Prices were up to $1.70 from $1.30 the week before.
Over in New York, the difference between the number of bullish and bearish contracts held by noncommercial gold futures and options traders on the Comex exchange – the so-called speculative net long – fell slightly the week ended last Tuesday at the equivalent of just over 422 tonnes of gold bullion, the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The decline marks the fourth-straight week of falls in the speculative net long, taking it to its lowest level since April 2009.
“The sustained deterioration in the net position is a signal that the speculative market remains wary of gold’s prospects, which might explain the failure of gold to sustain upward momentum,” reckons Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.
The rebalancing this week of index funds that track commodity prices could weigh on gold and silver prices, according to one dealer, who reckons around $5 billion of gold bullion will be sold.
“The rebalancing is mostly but not exclusively a matter of selling the previous year’s outperformers and buying the underperformers to bring the portfolio composure back in line,” says a note from Saxo Bank.
Swiss National Bank head Philipp Hildebrand has resigned over the controversy surrounding his wife’s purchase of US Dollars three week’s before the SNB pegged the Swiss Franc to the Euro, newswires Bloomberg and Reuters reported Monday lunchtime.
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 19December,08:45 EST
Physical Demand “Will Determine Support for Gold” while Selloff was “Driven by Euro Weakness”
WHOLESALE MARKET gold bullion prices rose to $1607 an ounce Monday lunchtime in London – 0.5% up from last Friday’s close – while European stocks and commodities were broadly flat and government bond prices eased.
Silver bullion meantime rose to $29.36 per ounce just ahead of New York’s open – 1.2% down on last week’s close.
Earlier on Monday Asian stock markets sold off following news of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s death. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 3.4%, while on the currency markets the South Korean Won sold off while the Dollar strengthened.
Gold bullion will fall below $1500 per ounce during the next three months, according to a poll of 20 hedge fund managers, economists and traders conducted by news agency Reuters.
“You’re looking at Euro weakness, rather than anything else, as the driving force behind the sell-off [in gold bullion last week],” reckons David Jollie, analyst at Mitsui Precious Metals, adding that many traders will be reluctant to buy gold so close to the end of the calendar year.
“Whatever your [longer-term] view, you have to ask what the chances are of making money by the end of the year…that says to a lot of people that this is not a market to get longer in.”
Over in New York, the difference between the number of bullish and bearish contracts held by noncommercial gold futures and options traders on the Comex exchange – the so-called speculative net long – fell 10.6% in the week ended last Tuesday, the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
“The key factors that will determine how supported the gold market is on the downside will be whether the ‘sticky’ ETP [exchange-traded product] holdings remain relatively stable and whether physical demand responds to much lower prices,” says a research note from Barclays Capital.
The volume of gold bullion held to back shares in the world’s largest gold ETF – the SPDR Gold Trust – has fallen 1.4% since the end of last month to just under 1280 tonnes. Over the same period, gold bullion prices have dropped around 8%.
European finance ministers are meeting Monday in an effort to meet a self-imposed deadline for arranging €200 billion of loans promised to the International Monetary Fund at the European Union summit earlier this month. Ministers also hope to make progress on drawing up new budget rules for national governments.
“They’ll try to get as much done as they can before Christmas,” says CarstenBrzeski, Brussels-based senior economist at ING Group.
“But it’s doubtful they’ll put markets in a Christmas mood…there is still so much uncertainty.”
Ratings agency Fitch warned on Friday that it may downgrade Belgium, Cyprus, France, Ireland, Italy, Slovenia and Spain. Fellow ratings agency Moody’s meantime announced that it has cut Belgium’s rating by two notches to Aa3.
“A ‘comprehensive solution’ to the Eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach,” said a statement from Fitch.
“Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. In Fitch’s opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the [European Central Bank] to mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity crises for potentially illiquid but solvent Euro Area Member States.”
ECB president Mario Draghi however says his organization will not step up its program of buying government bonds on the open market – said to be capped at €20 billion per week.
“People have to accept that we have to, and always will, act in accordance with our mandate and within our legal foundations,” Draghi says anan interview in today’s Financial Times.
“The important thing is to restore the trust of the people – citizens as well as investors – in our continent. We won’t achieve that by destroying the credibility of the ECB.”
Fitch’s warning follows a similar move by Standard & Poor’s earlier this month, which saw S&P put every Eurozone member on CreditWatch negative.
Back in August, S&P cut its rating on US sovereign debt. Newswire Bloomberg today suggests that downgrade has proved to be “absurd”, since US Treasury bond prices have since gained more than 4%.
“It is the ability to print one’s own currency to pay government bond investors back under any circumstances that makes a government bond a government bond, i.e. a (credit) risk- free asset for hold-to-maturity investors,” points out ElgaBartsch, London-based chief European economist at Morgan Stanley in London, in a recent client note.
Here in the UK, chancellor George Osborne is expected to give his full backing to the Independent Commission on Banking and promise to pass legislation by 2015 that will separate investment and retail banking.
UK house prices meantime have fallen 2.7% over the last 12 months, according to figures published today by Rightmove.
“It looks like no nation, no market, no investor is free from this negative outlook. And gold is no exception,” says a note from Swiss gold bullion refiner MKS.
“Gold appears to be playing a difficult role at the moment,” adds the latest note from German precious metals group Heraeus.
“On one side it is the stability anchor in times of economic and financial crisis, on the other hand there are increasing signs…that gold is in wake of the equity and interest markets.”
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 3October,08:00 EDT
“Surprising” Rally for Gold despite “Vulnerability” on Futures Market, “Greece is Bankrupt”
U.S.DOLLAR gold bullion prices began the week strongly, climbing to $1663 per ounce Monday morning London time – a 2.4% gain on Friday’s close – while stocks and commodities fell and government bonds rose following news that Greece’s second bailout agreed less than three months ago is unlikely to be enough.
Silver bullion prices also rose, climbing to $31.43 per ounce – 4.9% above where they ended last week.
“Surprisingly gold and silver has been rallying in a very thin market,” said one Hong Kong bullion dealer this morning.
“If there is no more fund liquidation in the beginning of a new quarter, and given that doomsday is just a few weeks from us, is the safe haven property of precious metals back in fashion again?”
The net long position of bullish minus bearish contracts held by noncommercial – so-called speculative – gold futures and options traders on New York’s Comex exchange fell by more than 20% in the week ended September 27, according to data published Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Speculative net longs fell to 158,754 100-ounce contracts – the lowest level since May 2009, and equivalent to 494 tonnes of gold bullion – as the number of short positions rose while long positions decreased.
“The continuation of the decline in speculative longs indicates the increased caution with which participants are approaching the gold market,” says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.
“Taken together with the increase in speculative shorts – which are currently at relatively high levels – gold appears to have returned to the vulnerability of several weeks ago.”
As a percentage of all open interest, speculative net longs fell to 19.2% – the lowest level since the week ended 18 November 2008, when the figure was 12.3%. The price of gold bullion at the PM London Fix that day was $738 per ounce – it has not been lower since.
The gross tonnage of gold held to back shares in the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker GLD) – the world’s largest gold ETF – also fell last week, following a sharp rise that started towards the end of August.
The GLD held just under 1232 tonnes of gold on Friday – down from 1252 tonnes a week before.
“The continued mix of default fears and economic slowdown are likely to trigger further pockets of cash generating long liquidation,” warns a note from Swissgold bullion refiner MKS.
Despite the outflows, Friday’s GLD holdings were less than one tonne below the amount held on 6 September, the day the gold price hit its all-time intraday high of $1920 per ounce.
“To be clear, physical demand right now is not just decent, it is exceptionally strong,” noted UBS precious metals strategist Edel Tully last week.
The CFTC data also show a sharp drop in speculative net long silver positions – together with a corresponding fall in net short positions held by commercial traders (including miners, refiners and bullion banks) who take the other side of that trade.
In Europe meantime, the Greek government announced Sunday that it expects to miss deficit targets agreed earlier this year with its ‘troika’ of creditors – the European Central Bank, European Union and International Monetary Fund – despite announcing fresh austerity measures.
Greece now expects its deficit is to be 8.5% for 2011 – compared to the 7.6% forecast on which a second bailout worth €109 billion was agreed in July.
“Greece is bankrupt,” says Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary floor leader for Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party.
“Probably there is no other way for us other than to accept at least a 50% forgiveness of its debts.”
Private sector banks agreed in July to accept a 21% write-down in the value of their Greek debt holdings.
“I am warning in the most forceful way against any material revision [of July's agreement],” said Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann on Sunday.
Ackerman is also head of the International Institute of Finance, which agreed the terms under which private creditors would undertake a bond swap.
“If we reopen the voluntary accord of July 21, we will not only lose precious time but quite possibly also private investor support…the impact of such a move will be incalculable.”
Over in China meantime – the world’s second-largest source of private gold bullion demand – manufacturing growth accelerated in September, according to official data published Saturday.
China’s purchasing managers index (manufacturing) rose to 51.2 – up from 50.9 for August (a figure above 50 indicates sector expansion).
Here in Europe, data published today show German manufacturing grew slightly last month, with PMI rising to 50.3 from 50.0 last month.
For the Eurozone as a whole, however, manufacturing activity continued to contract, with the PMI coming in at 48.5 – down from 49.0 in August. Here in the UK, manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 – up from 49.4 for August.
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Mon, 22 Aug. 2011
Gold Makes Another Clean Sweep, Touches $1890 as Treasury Buyers Look to QE3
THE PRICE OF physical gold rose Monday morning for the thirteenth time in sixteen August trading sessions so far, recording new all-time highs against all major currencies bar the Japanese Yen as London dealing began.
The price of physical gold briefly broke above $1890 per ounce as Asian stock markets closed the day lower again, but European equities then bounced, with London’s FTSE-100 index jumping 2% to regain 100 of the 775 points lost so far in August.
Little changed over the previous nine months, the gold price in Australian Dollars has now risen 31% since the start of July.
The price of gold in Swiss Francs – strongest of the world’s major currencies during the latest financial crisis and deemed a “safe haven” – has risen by 20% in the last three weeks alone.
“It is hard to imagine a much more bullish environment for gold,” says one London dealer in a note.
“ETF buying and other risk aversion have helped push the price to new highs just shy of the $1,900 mark which seems likely to be broken this week.”
“If it was just the retail end of the [investor] spectrum that was buying,” says the latest Metal Matters from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, “then that might signal that the end of the rally was in sight
“But the fact that the buying has been broad based suggests sentiment remains strong. Indeed given that no solutions to the debt crises have been found, it seems as though the big picture outlook for gold remains robust…for a considerable time.”
“It is difficult to argue that gold is in a bubble,” says Marc Ostwald, financial markets strategist at Monument Securities, quoted by EuroMoney magazine, “even if the one-way charge into gold has bubble-like qualities.
“It would require a sharp rise in money rates and bond yields to attract money away from gold.”
Major-government bond yields ticked higher early Monday as prices slipped back, nudging 10-year US Treasury returns up to 2.12%.
Ten-year Treasury yields briefly fell below this level in Dec. 2008. US consumer-price inflation was pegged in July at 3.6% annually.
“The market is pricing in another round of large-scale asset purchases [from the Federal Reserve], looking for confirmation possibly as early as [this week's] Jackson Hole symposium,” reckons Anshul Pradhan, fixed-income analyst at Barclays in New York.
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke used his Jackson Hole speech in 2010 to announce the US central bank’s second-round of quantitative easing. But with 10-year Treasuries already ‘pricing in’ up to $600 billion of QE3 today, “If the chairman does disappoint, then there should be a reversal in the outperformance of 10-year notes,” says Pradham.
Record-low Treasury bond yields “are consistent with near zero growth and inflation,” says Citigroup strategist Brett Rose.
“All commodity prices decline during a recession, except gold,” says Standard Bank’s Walter de Wet in a new report released Monday morning. “We believe this is likely to be the case once again, should we experience a recession.
“Gold has declined substantially in only two recessions – 1980 and 1981. These recessions were led by extremely tight monetary policy and high real interest rates.”
Europe’s benchmark oil price, Brent crude lost 1% to $107 per barrel on Monday morning, as Libyan rebels entered the capital, Tripoli, and declared the 42-year Gaddafi dictatorship to be finished.
Silver prices briefly touched $44 per ounce – up by 10% from the start of the month, but still 12% off April’s three-decade highs.
Meantime in Indian – the world’s largest price-consumer market for gold bullion – “The rains have been good so far, so we can expect good demand for [October's] festival season this year,” said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, to a conference on Saturday.
Indian households’ sales of “scrap gold” have fallen even as gold prices reached new record highs, noted another speaker.
“The equity market is volatile and property prices are too high, driving people toward gold as an investment,” says Kothari.
Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices
Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
by Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday 17 August,08:30 EDT
Gold Hits $1795, “Useless” Eurozone Leaders would Cut Funding to Govts Disobeying Brussels
THE DOLLAR gold price rose to a high of $1795 an ounce Wednesday morning in London – 1.1% off last Wednesday’s record – before selling off towards lunchtime.
Broad commodity prices rose, while stock markets dropped following Tuesday’s Franco-German summit in Paris.
“Downside support [for the gold price] is found at $1742,” say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.
“Our big picture view is that while $1687 holds, the risk is for a measured move objective of $1932.”
Silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark around lunchtime, hitting $40.38 – a 3.4% gain for the week so far.
“Gold is still the most appealing asset in the short run, while uncertainty over the Eurozone’s future will not evaporate overnight,” says VTB Capital analyst AndreyKryuchenkov.
Eurozone governments will not start issuing so-called Eurobonds – join-government debt instruments collectively back by all members of the single currency. Nor will the European Financial Stability Facility – the Eurozone’s €440 billion bailout fund – be enlarged.
Those were the conclusions of Tuesday’s meeting between French president Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
“Eurobonds can be imagined one day,” Sarkozy told reporters after the meeting.
“But at the end of the European integration process, not at the beginning.”
Merkel described Eurobonds as “last resort” that are not required at this point.
The two leaders instead advocated closer integration of Eurozone members’ fiscal policies – with sanctions for those that breached rules on deficits and debt limits – and proposed an ‘economic government’ for the single currency area headed by current European Union president Herman van Rompuy.
In a joint letter to Van Rompuy Wednesday morning, Merkel and Sarkozy suggested a freeze on EU structural funding – intended to grant financial assistance and resolve economic and social problems – for members who fail to comply with Brussels recommendations on deficit reduction.
Currently 14 of the 17 Eurozone countries – including France and Germany – are subject to the European Commission’s “excessive deficit procedure”. EDP is triggered when a deficit exceeds 3% of gross domestic product, or when total government debt breaches 60% of GDP.
Merkel and Sarkozy also proposed a levy on financial transactions – known as a Tobin tax.
“Again, European leaders fail to provide a proper answer to the right question,” says a note from French investment bank Natixis.
“A European Tobin-like tax is not the solution.”
“The market felt [the meeting] to be useless [which] brought gold higher,” said Swiss gold bullion refiner MKS on Tuesday.
Since the first Greek bailout in May 2010, the Euro gold price – which hit a high of €1248 per ounce this morning – is up more than 30%.
On the currency markets, the Swiss Franc shot up 2.6% against the Euro on Wednesday morning, prompting the Swiss National Bank to repeat its assertion that the Franc is “massively overvalued”.
The SNB announced that it is expanding liquidity supply for the second time in a week. The central bank aims to increase banks’ instant access deposits with the SNB by 67% to SFr200 billion.
“The SNB reiterates that it will, if necessary, take further measures against the strength of the Swiss Franc,” said an official press release.
The currency’s rise this morning saw the Swiss Franc gold price fall 2.3% to SFr1400 per ounce.
The Bank of England meantime refrained from expanding its asset purchase program – known as quantitative easing – at its nine-member Monetary Policy Committee meeting earlier this month, with only one of the nine members voting for expansion, minutes published Wednesday reveal.
Other members, however, “considered whether there was a case for increasing the degree of monetary stimulus by undertaking a further programme of asset purchases. Those members concluded that the case was not yet strong enough… further asset purchases might nonetheless become warranted were some of the downside risks to materialise.”
The MPC voted unanimously to keep rates on hold at 0.5% – where they have remained since March 2009. At every other MPC meeting this year, at least two members have voted for a rate hike.
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
by Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Mon, 15 Aug. 2011
Gold Demand “Strong on Dips” as Confidence in Currencies “Goes Down the Drain” 40 Years After Gold Standard’s End
WHOLESALE PRICES to buy gold held above $1730 in London trade Monday morning – the 40th anniversary of US president Richard Nixon “closing the gold window” and officially ending the $35-per-ounce Gold Exchange Standard.
Trading nearly 4.7% below last week’s new all-time high of $1815, the price to buy gold stood 50 times higher from the official US Dollar exchange rate of 15 August 1971.
Crude oil has risen nearly 24 times over since then, while US consumer prices (on the official measure) have risen 5-fold.
The S&P 500 stock market index has risen a little over 12-fold since August 1971.
“The metals had a fairly tamed start to the week,” says a note from Mitsui’s Hong Kong office on the $20-per-ounce overnight fall in the gold price.
“That provided a good opportunity to Chinese [traders], who bought either to establish long positions or to sell against Shanghai [as it] showed high premium.”
Prices to buy gold on the Tokyo wholesale market also rose versus the London benchmark, cutting their discount to 75c per ounce as prices fell – the lowest since Dec. 2010 according to Reuters.
“We haven’t seen much scrap and…are getting good physical demand from Indonesia and Thailand,” it quotes a Singapore dealer today.
Anecdotal reports quoted by the newswire on Friday claimed that scrap gold supplies – sales by the general public of unwanted or broken jewelry – have been drying up in New York, Mexico City and Chennai, India despite this month’s 11% jump in the gold price.
“While there are decent amounts of scrap gold coming to market from Asia, this is being outweighed by physical buying,” says today’s note from Standard Bank in London.
“Buying should increase on price pull-backs as we head into high seasonal demand” from Indian households ahead of the Diwali festival in late October.
Tokyo and other Asian stock markets meantime rose sharply this morning after new data showed Japan’s economy shrinking less quickly than analysts forecast after March’s tsunami and nuclear crisis.
European stock markets also rose, extending their two-day rally from the summer’s 25% plunge in French and German equities.
“There won’t be a collectivization of debt or unlimited assistance,” said German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble in today’s edition of Der Spiegel, denying the joint-government bond solution to the Euro debt crisis set for discussion this week by Chancellor Angela Merkel and her French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy.
“Eurobonds would mean that everybody shares the same interest burden which would be a punishment for [fiscally] prudent nations,” added Berlion’s economic minister Philipp Roesler today, quoted by the DAPD news agency.
“Confidence in our currencies, policy makers and central banks is going down the drain,” says Swiss asset manager Felix Zulauf in the latest edition of Barron’s magazine.
“That will be reflected in a rising gold price.
“I have long said this isn’t an environment for investing in stocks. Hold cash in the form of short- to medium-term Treasuries. Own a lot of gold, and don’t have debt.”
Desperate to suppress the surging Swiss Franc against the Euro, the Swiss National Bank injected cash equal to 20% of the country’s annual economic output into the banking sector last week, reports the Financial Times‘ Gillian Tett today.
As a result, “Implied Swiss interest rates plunged into negative territory,” Tett writes. “If you want to lend Swiss Francs or make a deposit in the next year, you must pay for the privilege.
“Call it Alice in Wonderland economics.”
Analysts meantime continued on Monday to guess at the size of last week’s intervention by the European Central Bank in the Italian and Spanish bond markets, with Gary Jenkins of Evolution Securities pegging the ECB’s bond buying between €10 billion and €15bn.
“Spain and Italy between them are expected to come to the market for over €100bn of medium to long term funding for the rest of this year,” Jenkins adds in a note, “which could mean official support for the markets may have to be substantial.”
Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices
Formerly City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning in London and head of editorial at the UK’s leading financial advisory for private investors, Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault – winner of the Queen’s Award for Enterprise Innovation, 2009 and now backed by the World Gold Council market-development and research body – where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
by Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Friday 29 July, 08:30 EDT
Gold Rallies, “Credibility Downgrade” Hits “Irresponsible” Washington
THE U.S. DOLLAR gold price climbed to $1617 an ounce Friday morning London time – 0.7% off Wednesday’s all-time high – as stocks and commodities fell following the decision to cancel a vote on proposals to cut the US deficit.
Heading into the weekend, the gold price was looking at a 1% weekly gain by Friday lunchtime.
The silver price hit $39.83 per ounce – a 0.6% down on last week’s close – before easing back around midday.
“If a deal to raise the US debt ceiling is not in place [within a week], federal agencies will be effectively bankrupt,” says French investment bank Natixis.
“Furthermore, fears of a downgrade in the AAA rating of the US are also helping gold, and the country has already received a credibility downgrade in the eye of many investors.”
“Investor reluctance to wait until Monday for a resolution that may not come could see gold climb again after a relatively steady day yesterday,” adds one gold bullion dealer here in London.
The vote on speaker John Boehner’s proposals to reduce the US deficit – due to go before the House of Representatives – was cancelled on Thursday after lobbyists failed to drum up enough support from Boehner’s fellow Republicans.
Boehner reportedly told Republican holdouts to “get your ass in line” on Wednesday.
“I didn’t come here to go along to get along,” responded Republican Congressman Jason Chaffetz.
“These arguments of ‘get behind me’ aren’t persuasive.”
“I’d like something systemic that transcends election cycles,” added Republican Congressman Trey Gowdy.
“Like a balanced budget amendment.”
Boehner’s proposal would raise the debt ceiling by around $900 billion, meaning the US Treasury would likely hit it around December this year.
“No Democrat will vote for a short-term Band-Aid that would put our economy at risk,” says Senate majority leader, Democrat Harry Reid.
The White House has also said it would veto Boehner’s plan if it got through the Senate.
Beijing’s state-run Xinhua news agency said on Friday that the US has been “kidnapped” by “dangerously irresponsible” politicians.
China is meantime poised to overtake India as the world’s largest gold bullion consumer, according to the chief executive of world’s second largest Gold Mining firm Goldcorp.
Here in Europe, ratings agency Moody’s placed Spain on review for possible downgrade on Friday.
The decision should “return focus to the not entirely settled Eurozone debt situation,” says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.
Spanish prime minister Jose Zapatero announced shortly afterwards that he was calling early elections, “to project political and economic certainty for the next few months”.
The elections will take place on November 20.
Eurozone inflation meantime fell to 2.5% this month, compared to 2.7% in June, according to data released Friday by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics body.
By contrast, inflation in the Eurozone’s biggest economy, Germany, rose this month – up to 2.4%, compared to 2.3% in June –data published on Thursday show.
The lower-than-expected Eurozone figure gives the European Central Bank ” more room for maneuver given signs of a sharper than expected slowdown in economic growth,” says ABN Amro economist Nick Kounis.
“Essentially, a more favorable inflation evolution could make it easier for the ECB to take a break from rate hikes if the downside risks to the outlook were to intensify,” he adds, citing sovereign debt problems on both sides of the Atlantic.
“Eurostat’s methodology for seasonal factors has [however] changed from January,” points out Luigi Speranza, economist at BNP Paribas.
“This, we believe, is the main cause underlying the sharp slowdown in [consumer price] inflation.”
In Switzerland, meantime, “the appreciation of the Swiss Franc against all major investment currencies resulted in substantial valuation losses” in the first half of the year, the Swiss National Bank said Friday.
The SNB lost CHF9.9 billion in transactions designed to control the Swiss Franc’s rising value on currency markets. The Swiss Franc is regarded by many investors as a ‘safe haven’ currency.
The Swiss Franc gold price fell 4.8% over the first half of 2011 – while the US Dollar gold price rose 6.1% over the same period.
“Gold is denominated in a unit which is non-constant,” points out a note from Citigroup today, adding that the US Dollar “has tended to decline in value thereby artificially inflating the metal’s nominal price”.
“Given the historical role of gold as a storage of wealth, perceived devaluation in the purchasing power of fiat currencies translates into demand for the what is essentially the ultimate global reserve currency.”
Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
